Tag: canada

Canada’s Arctic Choices

Over the Circle
[Photo by Marc Lanteigne]

by Marc Lanteigne

‘Assume nothing’ has became the de facto catchphrase to best describe the upcoming parliamentary elections in Canada, to be held on 28 April. Political fortunes of the competing parties have shifted rapidly since the beginning of this year, primarily due to one outstanding factor: the aggressive, (and regressive), foreign policies of the country’s southern neighbour, the United States under Donald Trump. As a result of the America’s president’s continuous calls, including on social media, for Canada to be absorbed by the United States, while simultaneously questioning the legitimacy of two states’ mutual borders, bilateral relations have deteriorated. This has resulted in various pro-Canada campaigns and a recent dramatic fall in Canadian visitor numbers to the US. 

Canada has also been a frequent target of the Trump administration’s erratic and unfocused tariff policies, prompting a series of countermeasures by Ottawa. Although US-led global trade tensions have since been readjusted, as Washington turns its sights more fully on China, damage has still been done, and it remains to be seen whether the reformed Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA) can be maintained. 

The main effect of Trump’s Canada ‘policies’ has been a swift resurgence of support for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party, which late last year had been written off as unsalvageable due to the unpopularity of Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Current polling suggested a Liberal lead of more than five percent over the opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. At the same time, support for smaller parties, namely the New Democratic Party (NDP), the Bloc Québécois, and the Green Party, has also dropped in recent weeks.

Both of the two leading parties have proposed programmes to address the challenges faced by the Canadian Arctic, reflecting the longer list of the far north’s security threats not only from Russia, and the possibility of greater Sino-Russian military cooperation, but also to a degree from the Trump government, which has not only questioned Canadian sovereignty but has also made repeated calls for the annexation of Greenland on vague ‘international security’ grounds.

In April of last year, the Trudeau government published the most recent governmental Arctic defence policy, ‘Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence,’ which received much scrutiny from regional specialists for how the document represented a more diversified set of regional interests, many of which more closely reflected the new geo-strategic realities of the far north. 

Members of the Advanced Naval Capabilities Unit, based in Victoria, British Columbia, pilot a G15 Sentinel drone to test interoperability in Arctic conditions as part of Operation NANOOK-NUNALIVUT in Inuvik, Northwest Territories on 27 February 2025. [Photo by Master Corporal Alana Morin, Joint Task Force – North, Yellowknife, via the Canadian Forces Imagery Gallery].

In December 2024, Global Affairs Canada published its revised Arctic policy statement, a piece which also reflected the cold realism of changed security circumstances in the far north. Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy described the pillars of Canada’s renewed northern strategies as the need to ‘assert Canada’s sovereignty; advancing Ottawa’s national interests through pragmatic diplomacy; leading on Arctic governance and multilateral challenges; and adopting a more inclusive approach to Arctic diplomacy.’ The statement pointed to ‘major powers that do not share Canadian interests’ as obstacles to peace in the region, and also referred to non-traditional or ‘grey zone’ Arctic threats in the form of malicious cyber activities, interference in local affairs and economic coercion. 

This policy paper also advocated the appointment of an Arctic ambassador and the opening of Canadian consulates in Anchorage and Nuuk, while strengthening communications with like-minded Arctic states, another task since made more complicated by the re-election of Donald Trump. 

There was also greater space given for engagement with ‘like-minded’ non-Arctic states to participate in regional dialogues and policymaking, including in the North Pacific as Canada seeks to improve relations with Japan and South Korea, two states with their own Arctic interests. This reflected Canadian concerns over China’s long-term goals in the current and the current challenges presented by Beijing’s ‘dual-use’ scientific interests in the Arctic which critics have argued could serve military purposes. 

Within the Liberals’ policy document going into the election, promises included an upgrading of vital Arctic infrastructure, such as the Greys Bay Port and Road Project, as part of the revived local economy, as well as a new airstrip. There were also policies of improved cooperation with local actors to better identify regional risks, and a Canada-Europe agreement specifically tied to mutual Arctic interests.

In March of this year, Prime Minister Carney had previous announced a spending package of C$6.7 billion in spending for the Canadian Arctic, which would focus on infrastructure-building and monitoring, with the latter being bolstered by a radar technology purchase from Australia, further reflecting newfound Canadian unease about US cooperation. All of these policies reflected the underscoring by Ottawa that its Arctic sovereignty would not be challenged. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney meeting with his UK counterpart, Keir Starmer, in March this year. [Photo via Wikipedia]

The Conservatives’ updated Arctic policies going into the election got off to a shaky start with a tin-eared posting on X/Twitter last December implying that the appointment of a Canadian Arctic Ambassador was a waste of funding as there was no one to speak to there, save for ‘Santa Claus’. Two months later, Mr Poilievre issued a statement in Iqaluit that his government would seek to open a military facility in the Nunavut capital, as well as bolstering the ranks of the Canadian Rangers in the Arctic and adding two more icebreakers for the Canadian Navy in addition to the ones promised for the country’s Coast Guard. 

The previous Conservative government under Stephen Harper had also vowed to develop Arctic military facilities, but the promised base at Nanisivik announced by his government in 2007 remains unfinished and without a confirmed opening date. 

Within a September 2023 Conservative policy document were promises of improved consultations with the country’s Arctic territories (Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Yukon), in preparation for greater economic activities prompted by climate change and demand for regional resources. A call for a strengthening of North American Air Defence (NORAD) in Arctic may also however be adversely affected by the current downturn in US-Canada relations. Mr Poilievre underscored the need for military infrastructure in the Canadian north in the candidates’ English language debate last week, saying that it was only a matter of time before Russian vessels would seek to enter Canadian Arctic waters, and therefore monitoring and response capabilities had to be upgraded. 

Within the Canadian Arctic, major issues amongst voters included Indigenous rights, healthcare, socio-economic development, dealing with high prices and housing challenges, and also maintaining regional security and sovereignty. The eventual shape of the Canadian Arctic economy, and who would benefit, was another overarching question going into the final days of the campaigns. 

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre meets with then-US President Joe Biden, March 2023 [Photo via Wikipedia]

The next government in Ottawa will have a host of Arctic-related challenges to address in the coming months. On 12 May, the chair of the Arctic Council is due to be transferred from Norway to the Kingdom of Denmark, with Greenland taking on a paramount role in the chairship which will last until early 2027. 

It had been decided earlier this month that the transfer of the chair would take place completely virtually, sidestepping what could have been an extremely difficult situation based on three factors. The first being the ongoing question of Russia’s downgraded role within the group, in the wake of its illegal 2022 full invasion of Ukraine. The second being the soured relationship between the United States and Canada as well as between Washington and Copenhagen and Nuuk over the Trump government’s land grab policy towards Greenland. The third being the high likelihood that the United States will decline to support any Council initiatives which mention climate change, which is still touted by the current occupant of the White House as fictional, despite mounting evidence to the contrary and it being the central concern in the Arctic. 

Other Arctic-related questions facing the next Canadian government includes the future of strategic agreements ranging from NATO and NORAD to the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ‘ICE Pact’, agreement struck between Canada, Finland and the United States in July last year. Since re-assuming office, the Trump government’s icebreaker policy has been mercurial at best, including an odd promise this past February that the US would somehow produce ‘forty’ icebreakers for the American Coast guard, despite a lack of means or infrastructure for doing so. This month, it was reported that the US and Finland may strike a side deal for the American purchase of five Finnish icebreaking vessels, and where Canada might fit into that endeavour was unclear. 

After a short (but unusual) election season in Canada, which has greatly galvanised the public thus far, the Arctic will be a major part of local, and regional, scrutiny over the policy directions taken by Ottawa in the coming months. 

Greenland’s Vote, Trump, and the Sovereignty Schism

Over the Circle
[Photo by Marc Lanteigne]

by Marc Lanteigne

It was widely predicted in local and international media that this month’s parliamentary elections in Kalaallit Nunaat / Greenland would be the most widely watched in the island’s history, given the unwelcome spotlight placed on Nuuk after incoming US President Donald Trump not only returned to his hapless 2019 proposal to ‘purchase’ Greenland from Denmark, but also intensified his rhetoric. In speeches and his social media posts since the beginning of this year, he refused to rule out of the use of force in acquiring the island, and vowing during his recent speech to a joint session of the US Congress that ‘one way or the other, we’re going to get it’.

Trump also made vague claims that Greenland as US territory would be essential for ‘national security’, despite the fact that the American military already maintains a military facility at Pituffik with extensive monitoring capabilities. At times, the affair has veered into outright absurdity, with one example being a sycophantic bill introduced in Congress last month which would ‘authorise’ the President to enter into negotiations to acquire Greenland, and to also rename it ‘Red, White, and Blueland’. 

Although on the eve of the Greenlandic election Trump appeared to soften his rhetoric, praising the vote but also promising that Greenland could become ‘RICH!’ if it agreed to be transferred to American sovereignty, the damage had more than been done. The renewal of the ‘buy Greenland’ fiasco has placed further strains on Washington’s relationship with Denmark, a NATO ally. Coupled with Trump’s increasing vitriol towards the government and economy of Canada, culminating in an erratic acceleration of the bilateral trade war this month, (which is now being called the ‘dumbest’ ever example of such a conflict), Arctic diplomacy and security, including via the NATO alliances, is now being placed in much greater doubt at a fraught time. 

The delicate issue of Greenland’s independence from Denmark was also pushed into the forefront at a time when the legacies of Danish colonialism, which officially ended in the 1950s, were still affecting Greenlandic society. These issues included ongoing revelations surrounding an IUD policy in Greenland from the 1960s-70s, and the release (and subsequent removal) of a controversial documentary ‘Greenland’s White Gold’ / ‘Orsugiak – Grønlands hvide guld’ which detailed the appropriation of funds from the island by Danish cryolite mining in the century leading up the late 1980s. 

The now-outgoing previous government coalition in Denmark, the once-unlikely alliance between two previous big party rivals, the centre-left Siumut (‘Forward’) and the left-green Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA – ‘Community of the People’) had the thankless job of trying to respond to this resurgence of American pressure, and it was widely expected that one of both parties would not fare as well in the vote. Outgoing Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede has repeatedly stressed that the sale of Greenland was a non-starter, including saying that ‘We don’t want to be Americans, nor Danes; We are Kalaallit.’ 

Siumut had been dealing with internal party divisions long before the election was called, but then had to address, in the runup to the election, with high-profile defections from prominent party members to Naleraq (‘Point of Orientation’), a main opposition party which supports both faster-track independence from Denmark and a greater foreign policy alignment with the United States. Siumut’s chair, Erik Jensen, had called for an activation of Article 21 of the 2009 Greenland Self-Rule Act, which would jump-start the independence process, but that move did not appear to heal party rifts over the issue. 

Central Nuuk [Photo by Marc Lanteigne]

Naleraq, headed by Pele Broberg, had appeared to be positioning itself to be the potential kingmaker after this election, fielding 62 candidates, more than any other party, to vie for seats in the Inatsisartut (Parliament). Thirty-one seats were up for contention, and traditionally it has been difficult for a single party to govern alone, so there was also much initial speculation as to what sort of coalition may appear after the results were confirmed. 

Initial vote results on 11 March did appear to suggest a commanding lead for Naleraq, with IA appearing to suffer the biggest losses. As the day progressed, however, the numbers began to shift, steadily favouring another opposition party, Demokraatit (‘Democrats’). At the end of the counting, Demokraatit had gathered the most votes, almost thirty percent (obtaining ten seats), with Naleraq finishing second at 24.5% (eight seats), and IA third at just over twenty-one percent (seven seats).

Siumut’s seat count was reduced to four, and after the results were confirmed, Erik Jensen announced that he would be stepping down as chair with former foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt named as his successor. The chair of Demokraatit, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, confirmed after the vote that he was open to coalition talks with any of the other parties, with a stress on political unity after what has been a stressful few months for the island. Coalition talks have continued, with discussions reported between Demokraatit and all of the other parties. On 13 March, all parties released a joint statement opposing ‘the repeated statements about annexation and control of Greenland.’

Demokraatit had experienced a political shift of its own before this election, as it had previous been based on a policy of maintaining the union with Denmark. Then the party’s views gradually shifted to support for independence but in a more measured fashion which would place emphasis on achieving self-determination, including first completing the process of transferring government portfolios from Copenhagen to Nuuk, and a more diverse and robust economy. The party’s platform stresses a combination of social liberalism and fiscal conservativism, with a focus on lower taxes and business promotion but also improving housing, education and family support.

As the largest party in the next government coalition, there will be numerous economic questions ahead facing Demokraatit, including policies involving the ongoing reform of the seafood sector, the question of mining and fossil fuels, which IA was sceptical of on environmental grounds, and emerging industries such as tourism.

These issues likely resonated with the electorate despite the long shadow cast by the American drama. As well, another contributing factor to the results could have been exhaustion with the chaos of American foreign policy since January, and a greater backlash against populism, which is helping the political fortunes of some centrist parties in Europe, and potentially in Canada as well. 

As Ottawa prepares for an election on 28 April, Mark Carney was elected earlier this month as Liberal Party chief, replacing Justin Trudeau. The Liberals are currently experiencing an unlikely comeback in the polls, now running even with the opposition Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre, mainly out of concern for who the best leader would be to stand up to Trump. 

Protests in Nuuk over US President Trump’s ongoing campaign to acquire Greenland [Photo by Maria Ackrén]

In addition to the economic and domestic policy directions of the next Greenlandic government, what will also be closely watched how the thorny subject of an independence timetable will be addressed. This could likely be a major area of contention should Naleraq join, but either way there are likely to be changes in the relationship with Greenland and a rethinking of US relations, especially as pressure from the Trump administration resumes. Last week saw demonstrations in Greenland’s cities protesting the actions of the American government and reinforcing the fact that a majority of Greenlanders had no interest in becoming US territory, saying Naammaqaaq! (Enough!).

The pushback does not appear to have fazed Washington, as this week, a sudden announcement was made that the US government would shortly be sending another high-level delegation to Greenland. Framed as a ‘private visit,’ amongst the arrivals would be Second Lady Usha Vance, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and, traveling separately, US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.

The timing of this event was criticised by Greenlandic officials, especially since negotiations to from the next coalition government in Nuuk are ongoing, and that the addition of such a high-level security official to the tour was a telling sign that the Trump government was continuing to wave off objections by Greenlanders to this attempted annexation. 

On the eve of the announcement of the latest US delegation, Prime Minister Egede expressed frustration both at the visit, which he saw as American intimidation and that ‘the signal is not to be misunderstood’, and at the tepid responses from Greenland’s neighbours. He called for improved cooperation amongst the Greenlandic government to resist this pressure, and for Greenland’s allies to be more vocal in standing up to American actions. This view was echoed in a recent comment in the Norwegian news service Dagsavisen that Oslo and other Nordic governments needed to do more to show their support for Greenland and their rejection of ongoing US bombast. All of these matters are highly likely to affect the shaping of the next government in Nuuk, and its policy priorities going forward. 

[Addendum – 26 March 2025: After an announcement was made yesterday that American Vice-President JD Vance would also be traveling to Greenland, it was then reported that the entire US delegation would no longer travel to Nuuk and Sisimiut as previously planned, and instead the visit would be limited to the US Pituffik Space Base.]

Icebreaker Chess? A New Polar Shipbuilding Deal Amongst NATO Members

Over the Circle
US Coast Guard icebreaker Healy docked in Tromsø, Norway, October 2023 [Photo by Marc Lanteigne]

By Marc Lanteigne

As the Arctic Ocean faces ongoing warming and the breakup of the far north’s ice cap, access to the region, and to its resources, have become a greater concern for Arctic and non-Arctic governments. Ice erosion in the Arctic is shaping up to a halting process at best, as underscored by a study published this month about conditions in Canada’s Northwest Passage which suggested that local ice breakup would make the waterway less, not more, navigable in the near future as older sea ice drifts southwards, strengthening maritime chokepoints in the region and hampering shipping. Russia meanwhile has continued to promote its Northern Sea Route as an alternative maritime trade conduit between Asia and Europe, but progress has been slow due to post-2022 political roadblocks and questions over the predictability of ice conditions there. 

Icebreaking vessels capable of operating in far northern waters have therefore continued to be subjects of political debate, as climate change continues to affect the Arctic and tensions between the West and Russia have the potential to spill over into the region. At the recently-concluded NATO summit in Washington, three Arctic governments, Canada, Finland and the United States, announced an ‘Icebreaker Collaboration Effort’. Also known as the ICE Pact, the three allies agreed to share relevant information and expertise with an eye to jointly developing new icebreaking ships, including for purchase by allies, which could operate effectively in the Arctic and Antarctica. A detailed blueprint for this initiative is to be drawn up by the end of 2024.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC, July 2024 [Photo via NATO]

The ICE Pact, if successful, would also address what the United States had long lamented was an ‘icebreaker gap’ between itself and other major Arctic and non-Arctic governments. Shipyards in all three NATO Arctic countries would have the opportunity to construct icebreaking vessels, and one US firm, Bollinger, swiftly pledged its support for the initiative.

Canada has also been seeking to upgrade its icebreaker fleet at a time when the Justin Trudeau government announced last month that it was preparing a revised government Arctic policy in response to changed environmental and political conditions in the region. Arctic defence was also a strong theme in Ottawa’s latest defence policy [pdf] released in April this year. 

Icebreakers had also played a part in the Donald Trump government’s erratic and often mercurial approach to US Arctic policy. In June 2020, a memorandum was published by the White House which called for the acquisition of a ‘fleet’ of icebreakers, including polar-class security cutters (PSCs), to be in place by 2029. These ships would have eventually replaced the two icebreakers currently operating under the US Coast Guard, the Healy (launched in 1997) and the Polar Star (launched in 1973). As a potential stopgap measure, the Trump government also mooted the idea of leasing icebreakers until the American vessels could be deployed. Since that announcement was made, however, the initiative has been beset by repeated delays and ballooning costs, with estimates suggesting that the USCG would not have even a single new icebreaking vessel before 2029-30, despite initial plans for the first ship to be ready this year. 

The primary anxiety for those arguing about an icebreaker gap in the Arctic has been the steady pace of Russian and Chinese shipbuilding efforts. Russia has over forty icebreakers of various types, including nuclear powered vessels with additional such craft being constructed under Moscow’s ‘Project 22220’ initiative. The latest of these is the Ural, launched in 2022. However, the next Russian nuclear icebreaker, the Yakutia, is reportedly now facing considerable budget strains as it prepares for a planned December 2024 launch. Last month, Russia began trials of its latest icebreaking patrol vessel, the Ivan Papanin, which is expected to be incorporated within the country’s Northern Fleet by the end of this year. 

Since the successful launch of China’s Xuelong 2 / 雪龙2 (Snow Dragon 2) icebreaker in 2018, the country has sought to expand its own polar icebreaker capability as Beijing seeks to jump start its interests in the Polar Regions after a long pause during the global pandemic. Early last year, China’s third icebreaker, the Zhongshan Daxue Jidi / 中山大学极地 (Sun Yatsen University Polar) successfully completed a round of sea trials. 

Ice in the East Greenland Sea [Photo by Marc Lanteigne]

Last month, China’s fourth icebreaker, the Jidi / 极地 (Polar) was delivered to the country’s Ministry of Natural Resources, while the research vessel Tansuo Sanhao / 探索三号 (Discovery Three) is under construction (in Chinese) with a planned 2025 completion date. The need for icebreakers to assist in the development of Beijing’s Arctic policies, including expanded scientific research, was detailed in the Chinese government’s landmark 2018 White Paper on the Arctic. Reports had appeared in 2018 that China was also seeking to build an icebreaker with a nuclear engine, (thus far, only Russia has nuclear powered icebreaking ships). However, since the initial announcement, few details regarding logistics or timelines have been made available. 

Both Canada and the United States are facing potentially difficult elections in the near future, and so the specifics and scheduling for the ICE Pact are not set. There are also questions about what the eventual demand for such ships will be in the coming years. However, this announcement has underscored the interest of NATO members in ensuring a stronger presence in the Arctic for strategic as well as scientific reasons.